Pew Internet and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center asked [895] internet experts and stakeholders to react to two opposing statements about the direction and impact of the internet 10 years from now – that is, the year 2020. In this report, we cover there answers to these issues:
+ Will Google make us stupid?
76% of these experts agreed with the statement, “By 2020, people’s use of the Internet has enhanced human intelligence; as people are allowed unprecedented access to more information they become smarter and make better choices. Nicholas Carr was wrong: Google does not make us stupid.” Some of the best answers are in Part 1 of this report.
Note: We'll have more to say in a follow-up post but for now we think a better question would have been, will Internet search make us stupid. Companies, even big companies, come and go, merge, users lose faith, leaders depart, etc. If it's 2020 who is to say that Google is still the market leader? Perhaps some new information retrieval technology (and method of selling ads on the Internet) hasn't come along and left Google in the dust? We realize that you Google gets the attention of people BUT since this survey was given to tech experts, they most likely don't need the extra motivation to answer the query.
+ Will the internet enhance or detract from reading, writing, and rendering of knowledge?
65% agreed with the statement “by 2020 it will be clear that the Internet has enhanced and improved reading, writing and the rendering of knowledge.” Still, 32% of the respondents expressed concerns that by 2020 “it will be clear that the Internet has diminished and endangered reading, writing and the rendering of knowledge.”
+ Is the next wave of innovation in technology, gadgets, and applications pretty clear now, or will the most interesting developments between now and 2020 come “out of the blue”?
80% of the experts agreed that the “hot gadgets and applications that will capture the imaginations of users in 2020 will often come ‘out of the blue.’” Some of the best answers are in Part 3 of this report.
+ Will the end-to-end principle of the internet still prevail in 10 years or will there be more control of access to information?
Concerns over control of the Internet were expressed in answers to a question about the end-to-end principle. 61% responded that the Internet will remain as its founders envisioned, however many who agreed with the statement that “most disagreements over the way information flows online will be resolved in favor of a minimum number of restrictions” also noted that their response was a “hope” and not necessarily their true expectation. 33% chose to agree with the statement that “the Internet will mostly become a technology where intermediary institutions that control the architecture and …content will be successful in gaining the right to manage information and the method by which people access it.” Some of the best answers are in Part 4 of this report.
+ Will it be possible to be anonymous online or not by the end of the decade?
There more of a split verdict among the expert respondents about the fate on online anonymity. Some 55% agreed that Internet users will still be able to communicate anonymously, while 41% agreed that by 2020 “anonymous online activity is sharply curtailed.
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